A divided government is the ultimate result of the long-awaited, long-promoted 2018 mid-term elections that mostly concluded on Tuesday, November 6 (a few races are still undecided).
Come January, Democrats will have majority control of the House of Representatives, after winning 25-plus seats. And, Republicans will continue leading the Senate, though with a bigger margin.
Sounds like a recipe for gridlock, right? In these hyper-partisan times, sure. That would be the conventional wisdom. But there could be some proverbial wrenches that can be thrown in the mix. Here are a few takeaways from the competitive, hard-fought mid-term elections.
Florida remains an albatross for Democrats:
While former Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum, a Democrat, put up a spirited campaign against the far-right victor, former Rep. Ron DeSantis, Gillum falling short of winning proved to be a major disappointment. This is the same state that ultimately cost Al Gore the 2000 presidential election, due to a handful of votes and “hanging chads.” Both DeSantis and GOP Senate candidate, Rick Scott, a former governor, appear to have eked out wins (Scott’s is still technically too close to call in his race against Democrat Sen. Bill Nelson). Even the passionate advocacy from survivors of the mass shooting at a Parkland high school failed to help Democrats sufficiently on Election Day.
Mitch McConnell’s A Genius:
When Barack Obama became president, the Kentucky senator’s single-minded goal was to make Obama a one-term president. He ultimately failed on that front, but he succeeded in putting up a nearly impenetrable GOP firewall that limited many legislative and political gets for much of Obama’s term, including getting Merrick Garland, a moderate Republican, a hearing for the Supreme Court vacancy left by the death of Antonin Scalia. Looking back, it looks like McConnell had incredible foresight. After Trump got elected, McConnell’s other main goal of getting more conservative judges on the bench has worked, with the ultimate prizes of Neil Gorsuch and most recently, Brett Kavenaugh, appointed to the country’s highest court, not to mention a bunch of federal judges in the lower courts. With a bigger GOP cushion in the Senate, there will be less need to negotiate or dicker, weakening the power of Democrats further in the Upper House and leaving such moderates as the Tuesday Group and Blue Dog lawmakers less influential.
Opportunism Works:
Whether it was Ted Cruz embracing former foe Trump, Joe Manchin voting for Kavenaugh, Trump’s incessant demagogury, or seemingly misleading ads about immigrant caravans posing a threat, integrity is a value best left for a bygone era. Now, it’s all about results and expediency, and if that means having no shame, so be it. Those who voted their conscience on Kavanaugh’s nomination, particularly Democratic North Dakota Sen. Heidi Heitenkemp, ultimately suffered the consequences.
Democrats Regain in the Rust Belt and in Governor’s Offices:
The big example here was in Wisconsin, where it looks like Gov. Scott Walker, a once-rising conservative hero, will be unseated. Also, Democrat Tammy Baldwin won the Senate seat. Wisconsin was one of the the so-called Rust Belt states that went Republican in the last presidential election, something it hadn’t done since Ronald Reagan’s re-election landslide way back in 1984. Also, Connor Lamb, a conservative Democrat was able to secure a redrawn Congressional seat in Pennsylvania, a state that hadn’t gone red in the presidential election since 1988. Democrats also enjoyed other nice victories, winning some unlikely governorships in Kansas, Colorado and in Maine, which most recently was led by conservative Gov. Paul LePage.
Republicans, however, made their own stands in being elected chief executives in reliably blue states, such as Vermont, home to Bernie Sanders, and Connecticut, where residents had grown exhausted with tax-and-spend Gov. Dannel Malloy and the Nutmeg State’s ailing economy. Perennial Connecticut office seeker Ned Lamont falls short…again.
Trump Could Be The Ultimate Dealmaker
There were hints he could be an unlikely ally for Democrats early in his presidency, when Republicans were all over the place on immigration, and Sen. Chuck Schumer and Rep. Nancy Pelosi provided a somewhat sensible plan. Trump ultimately balked, but now with the Democrats having real powers, and Trump ultimately being more pragmatic than ideological, the trite phrase of politics makes strange bedfellows may be reinforced….again.
Tariffs Didn’t Hurt
For months, media have been focusing how Trump’s protectionist-like trade policies, particularly in the form of higher tariffs on everything from soybeans to Chinese-made steel, were driving up their operational costs. But as with most things involving Trump, conventional wisdom need not apply. Rural America embraced Trump’s Republicanism overwhelmingly. The $12 billion bailout for farmers who were negatively impacted by his trade policies probably helped the decision-making process.
Ultimately…This WASN’T a wave election
Unlike in 1994, when a huge tax increase by Democrats under then-President Bill Clinton brought about Newt Gingrich and the Contract of America, and in 2006, when Democrats took over both houses of Congress after voters became exhausted with George W. Bush’s cowboy diplomacy and the war in Iraq, Democrats only gained partial power this time around. Yes, it’s a big victory taking over the House, which will supply them with subpoena and investigative powers. But Trump’s loyal constituency, coupled with his ability to dwarf the rudimentary news cycle with his Wag-The-Dog like Tweets and dog whistles, remain alive and well. He might be slightly dinged, but the armor is still strong enough to withstand whatever is thrown at him. Democrats have to be careful with not getting too immersed in things that future voters could deem as self-serving fishing expeditions.
Here starts a two-year campaign for the 2020 presidency ….for both sides.
Parker Flag's Files 